We’ve been hearing this nonsense for years about how China’s the unstoppable juggernaut ready to steamroll America and the free world. The commies in Beijing love to strut around with their “official” numbers, painting a picture of endless growth and a billion-plus army of workers churning out cheap junk for the planet. But pull back the curtain, and it’s all smoke and mirrors. Their economy’s a house of cards built on lies, and their population’s vanishing faster than a liberal’s spine in a debate. China’s in deep trouble, and it’s only getting worse. Good riddance, I say—America First means watching our enemies trip over their own feet.
The Big Fat Lies Behind the Numbers
China’s been cooking the books like a bad chef at a greasy spoon. Their GDP figures? Pure fantasy. Back in 2007, even one of their own bigwigs admitted the numbers are “man-made” and unreliable, preferring to look at real stuff like electricity use and freight instead. Fast forward to now, and Xi Jinping himself is barking at officials to stop inflating stats with pointless projects and bogus growth. But hey, they claimed 5% growth in 2025, hitting that magic target like clockwork for the third year running. Reality check: Independent outfits peg the real number at maybe 2.5% to 3%, half of what Beijing brags about. Corporate profits tanked 13% in November 2025, and fixed investments are in the toilet. No wonder economists are calling it a “tofu-dreg” edifice—looks solid, crumbles at a touch.
And the population scam? They’ve been overcounting heads for decades to grab more subsidies and look tougher on the world stage. Official tally says 1.405 billion at the end of 2025, but whisper numbers suggest it’s inflated by 100 million or more. Some experts figure the real count’s closer to 1.28 billion or less. Local governments fudge everything from baby shots to school enrollments—it’s a racket from top to bottom.
Population Bomb: Detonating in Slow Motion
Remember that one-child policy? It was a disaster waiting to happen, and now the bill’s due. China’s population dropped for the fourth straight year in 2025, shedding 3.39 million souls to hit 1.405 billion. Births? Cratered to 7.92 million, down 17% from 2024—a record low since Mao’s famine days. The birth rate’s a pathetic 5.63 per 1,000 people, and fertility’s scraping bottom at around 1.0 kids per woman. Deaths climbed to 11.31 million, outpacing births big time.
The workforce is evaporating. Working-age folks (16-59) are down to 60.6% of the population, shrinking 28% by 2050 from its 2015 peak. Meanwhile, geezers over 60 hit 23% in 2025, heading to 30% by 2034. By 2100, UN projections say China could dwindle to 639 million—or less, if doomsayers are right, maybe 330 million. That’s a demographic tombstone, not a pyramid. Kindergartens are emptying out, schools closing—real signs you can’t Photoshop. Young Chinese aren’t breeding because life’s too expensive in the cities, where 68% now live. Women are educated, independent, and saying “no thanks” to the baby factory gig.
Economic Mirage: Exports Can’t Save the Day
Sure, China posted a monster $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, exports up 5.5% to $3.8 trillion. Clean energy stuff like solar and EVs drove a chunk of that “growth,” adding $2.1 trillion equivalent to the economy. But dig deeper: Domestic demand’s in the dumps, retail sales barely crawling at 1.3% in November. Property’s a black hole—sales and investments down 5-10%. Deflation’s gripping tight, with low inflation at 0.8% year-over-year in January 2026. Households and businesses are deleveraging, not spending.
Foreign reserves are up to $3.4 trillion as of January 2026, but that’s cold comfort with mountains of debt from ghost cities and bullet trains to nowhere. Overcapacity in steel, cement, solar—Xi’s cracking down, but it’s too late. Trump’s tariffs are biting, and the EU’s copying. Exports might hold for now, but with global slowdown, that crutch is breaking.
Future Shock: The Great Unraveling
Looking to 2026? Beijing’s eyeing a 4.5-5% growth target, but smart money says it’ll slow to 4.5% or less. Exports decelerate, property drags on, consumption stays weak. Without big reforms—which Xi ain’t doing—growth dips to 2.5% by 2030. Population shrinks another 3-5 million yearly, workforce evaporates, pensions buckle under 400 million retirees by 2035. Urbanization peaks, leaving ghost towns glossier but emptier.
By 2050, population down to 1.26 billion; by 2100, half that or worse. No robots or AI fix a vanishing consumer base. China’s “century of humiliation” might look like a picnic compared to this self-inflicted wound. Some say the whole system’s kaput by 2035. Call it the “great correction”—2026 could be when the mask slips.
America First: Their Loss, Our Gain
From an America First view, this is music to my ears. China’s woes mean less competition, fewer cheap imports flooding our markets, and a weaker rival on the global stage. We’ve got energy independence, a growing population thanks to smart policies, and Trump’s tariffs keeping them in check. Let Beijing deal with their empty cradles and fake spreadsheets—we’ll be building walls, drilling oil, and making America great. The Red Dragon’s huffing and puffing, but its house is coming down.